Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will look forward to a new year after 2023 saw his popularity plummet and all recent polls indicated that if Federal elections were held now, the opposition Conservatives would handily oust the ruling Liberal Party from power.
A survey released by the non-profit, non-partisan Angus Reid Institute or ARI on Thursday gave the Conservative Party a huge 17-point lead over Trudeau’s Liberals. On Friday, a poll from the agency Nanos Research predicted the Conservatives were in majority territory.
Federal elections are only expected in October 2025, giving Trudeau enough time to attempt a comeback. But, political scientist Andrew McDougall from the University of Toronto felt Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre was benefiting from “Trudeau fatigue.” He pointed out that historically in Canada, Governments tend not to last over two or three terms. Trudeau assumed office in 2015, and has faced three elections already. He said the trend suggested Canadians have “become tired of this particular Government and they’re looking for a change.”
The positive for Trudeau is the time remaining to try and regain ground. As ARI president Shachi Kurl said, “Two years is a very very long time in politics. It will be hard to imagine the Liberals not launching some sort of political counterattack to reduce the Conservative lead – although the observation from 2023 is that they have not appeared to have much left in their arsenal.”
What will worry the PM is that he’s losing those who voted for his party in 2021. As per the ARI poll, just 58 per cent of Liberal voters from 2021 will support the party in 2025.
The Nanos poll contained more signals for concern for Trudeau. He has dropped 10 points when it comes to the person preferred for PM since 2021. He’s down to just 21 per cent support, as against 33 per cent for Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre.
But Kurl felt Poilievre could face greater scrutiny going forward. “He will be scrutinized as a potential Prime Minister-in-waiting and will succeed or fail based on that people think of him and his policies,” she said.
The issues creating headwinds for Trudeau and his Governments are mainly economic in nature, from housing affordability to inflation and a cost-of-living crisis. None of them are likely to be resolved by the time elections are held, though the Government may make plenty of announcements. “These are huge issues that that lots of governments are facing and. The Trudeau government is not getting off the hook from voters’ anger because of it,” McDougall said.
Trudeau has also indicated a slew of populist announcements in the making for next year, including a national pharmacare programme (or universal prescription coverage). But, as the Trudeau brand itself falters, that may not entirely change the trajectory. “This is a very significant lead for the Conservatives right now, and they (the Liberals) are coming up on eight years or so in Government. So, this is looks like it’s going to be a real challenge for the Liberals to try to turn this around,” McDougall said.
